Northern Ireland's Economic Statistics

The Northern Ireland Economy performed very well in the period 1990 to 1995 and the Gross Domestic Product, the key economic indicator has averaged 2.4% growth per annum for the six years ending 31 December 1996 compared to 0.9% for Great Britain as a whole for the same period and furthermore the Northern Ireland Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow by 3-4% per annum until the end of the decade, 1.5% above that forecast for GB.

Employment growth in Northern Ireland is currently running at record levels - it has grown by 6.9% during the past five years compared with 1.7% in Great Britain. Unemployment, currently running at its lowest levels in around 17 years has fallen from a peak of 17.2% in October 1986 to 7.6% in November 1997.

Northern Ireland currently has a population of 1.6 million people approximately and it is forecast to grow by 5.7% compared to 1.8% for the UK as a whole. The most recent Gross Domestic Product figures suggest GDP per head of £8,025 (81.6% of UK average). GDP per capita in NI is 80% of the European Union average GDP per capita. Manufacturing contributes 19.6% (UK 21.3%) to GDP. The average annualised rate of pay was £10,900 (males £13,450 and females £8,000). Personal disposable income in 1995 amounted to £6,855m and can be analysed as follows:

The Northern Ireland economy is growing faster than most other regions in the UK. Manufacturing output in Northern Ireland has increased by almost 22% over the past five years - that is twice the rate of growth in Britain. During the first and second quarters of 1997 output increased by 1.3% - four times the UK national average.

The NTI employment mix relative to the UK is summarised below:

34.3% of the total NI labour force is employed by the public sector.

Relative to international comparisons the NI unemployment rate is reasonable given the comparative statistics below:

Exports from Northern Ireland

Exports from the Newry area reflect those generally of Northern Ireland (NI) as a whole. Total sales of NI manufacturers in 1995/96 were £8.7 billion, an 11% increase on 1994/95. Of the 1995/96 total, £5.9 billion, (68%) of sales were to customers outside NI and export sales outside UK amounted to £3.1 billion, accounting for 35% of total sales. The key NI export markets are highlighted in the table below:-

In value terms the food, drink and tobacco industries are the most important sectors in NI's exports and external sales, accounting for almost 32% of sales, 26% of external sales and 22% of exports in 1995/96.

Other important sectors in terms of their contribution to total sales are:

• Textiles, Clothing, Leather;
• Transport Equipment;
• Electrical and Optical Equipment; and
• Other machinery and equipment.

Almost 74,000 manufacturing jobs (71% of NI manufacturing employment) were estimated to rely on sales outside NI in 1995/96.

Exports from Newry & Mourne

A Newry & Mourne Export survey was published in April 1998 by Newry & Mourne Enterprise Agency. The Enterprise Agency was commissioned by the Newry & Mourne Peace and Reconciliation Partnership, Newry & Mourne District Council and LEDU to undertake the survey.

The survey confirmed a number of interesting trends as highlighted below:

• The Republic of Ireland is the principal market for 71% of manufacturing companies in Newry & Mourne;

• Small, export orientated companies in Newry & Mourne are outperforming Northern Ireland companies;

• Export sales of Newry & Mourne companies are growing at a faster rate than Northern Ireland companies as a while; and

• The principal markets for Newry & Mourne exports are the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain.

Republic of Ireland Economic Statistics

GDP in the Republic of Ireland (Rol) has increased by 53% in the period 1988-1994 and currently the Rol is the fastest growing economy in the European Union with a GDP growth of 10.3% in 1995, 6.75% in 1996 and 7% is expected in 1997 (DQ: we need to update this), with the trend forecast to continue with average annual GDP growth of 5.3% until the end of the century. This exceptional economic performance has justifiably earned the RoI economy the world-wide recognition of the "Celtic Tiger". The Rol GDP per head of population is now 104.5% of the European Union average, compared with 98.4% of the UK as a whole.

Although unemployment in the Rol is currently 10.3% in the past four years employment has increased by 17% which is equivalent to 200,000 new jobs - more than twice the increase over the previous 30 years.

The outlook for the Rol economy remains favourable with GNP forecast to increase by 7% in 1998 and by an average of 5.3% in 1999 and 2000. Although this represents a gradual slowing down of economic growth, the growth rate is still exceptional by international standards. (DQ: we need to update this)

Cross Border Trade - Economic Statistics

Trading links between Northern Ireland and the Republic of' Ireland are currently flourishing with exports from Northern Ireland to the south for the year ended 31 December 1997 estimated at £663.1m and imports from the south totalling £946.8m sterling, resulting in an estimated deficit of £284m in 1997 (DQ: we need to update this). For decades Newry has pioneered Ireland's trade and commercial relationship with the Irish Republic. Newry & Mourne has the most comprehensive locally driven programme of cross border trade development activity in Ireland. There are numerous examples of cross border economic activities originating in the Newry and Mourne area.

The annual growth in exports from the north to the south declined due to impact of the strong sterling against the punt. However, over the ten-year period 1987-1997 the nominal value of Northern Ireland's exports to the Republic has increased by some 93.3%, whilst imports from the Republic have only increased by 68.3%.

Of far greater significance is the fact that the Northern Ireland economy is heavily dependent on the Republic with Northern Ireland exports to the Republic representing almost 24% of total exports, whilst Republic exports to Northern Ireland only account for 3% approximately of total the Republic exports. This situation was recently confirmed by a survey which highlighted that the Republic market was the largest market for 71% of businesses located in Newry & Mourne.

Following the Good Friday Agreement whic,h as part of the three sets of relationships, proposes to establish a North-South Ministerial Council to bring representatives of the Belfast and Dublin administrations together "to develop consultation, co-operation and action within the island of Ireland - including through implementation on an all island and cross border basis - on matters of mutual interest" the trend towards a single Ireland economy looks likely to continue despite the short term difficulties arising from exchange fluctuations between sterling and the punt.

It is believed that Newry is the obvious, most economic, efficient and effective location to facilitate collaboration between the North and South of Ireland.

Newry/Dundalk Business Linkage Programme

A Newry/Dundalk Business Linkages Programme has recently been launched to promote Newry/Dundalk as an investment location. The programme is managed by John O'Hare (Tel: 028 30253722) under the control of the Newry/Dundalk Business Linkage Forum which is affiliated to the Newry/Dundalk Steering Committee (MP & TD led) and the East Border Region Committee (local authority led). The Newry/Dundalk Business Linkage Forum will concentrate on Newry/Dundalk specific initiatives and has offices in both Newry and Dundalk.

CBMBEC Belfast/Dublin Economic Corridor

In 1991, The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Northern Ireland and the Irish Business and Employer's Confederation (IBEC) established a Joint Business Council to promote cross border trade, business co-operation and development. The concept of an Economic Corridor between Dublin and Belfast was first identified by Sir George Quigley, current chairman of the NI Economic Council and Ulster Bank Ltd. The CBI/IBIC Joint Business Council is fully supporting the Belfast - Dublin Corridor Concept. Newry, located halfway between Belfast and Dublin, is ideally located to benefit from the Belfast - Dublin Corridor.

The CBI/IBEC Joint Business Council commissioned a study in 1994 to investigate the feasibility of developing a Belfast - Dublin corridor. Its conclusions were:

• It is feasible;
• Achieving full potential will depend on an end to terrorism and on political stability;
• The wider benefits of North/South economic development will not be realised unless fundamental weaknesses in the Corridor, such as poor transport infrastructure and limited interaction are tackled; and
• Widespread private sector support for Corridor development will be needed.

A programme was developed under the auspices of the IBEC-CBI Joint Business Council to focus on the above issues.

Speaking at a CBI/IBEC Conference in 1997, Sir George Quigley stated:

"What the Corridor project is all about is what, in cardiological terms, would be described as the unblocking of a vital artery which increases the flow of oxygen and enables the whole heart to function more efficiently. Until that happens, there is a part of the island which is not pulling its weight and is therefore letting the whole island team down."

The 1997 Cross-Border Economic Corridor Conference concluded that much had been achieved in a rather short period of time. Cross-border trade had grown significantly. An information technology project had been designed to assist interchange of information among private sector companies. Universities North and South are co-operating with private sector interests in developing projects aimed at commercialising research and development carried out inhigher education institutions.

Other projects focusing on the acquisition of improved product design and production technology have been undertaken. Joint tourism promotions initiatives have been promoted by NITB and Bord Failte.

Joint overseas Trade Missions have been organised by IDB and An Bord Trachtala. An Bord Trachtala and IDB together commissioned a set of reports identifying market opportunities throughout the island of Ireland covering 15 markets worth over £4 billion. Joint matchmaking initiatives were organised at the Washington and Pittsburgh Trade and Investment Conferences in 1995 and 1996 respectively.

A feasibility study on the construction of a North/South gas inter-connector is currently underway. Joint transport links are also being investigated. Priority 1 Transport European Network (TENs) Belfast/Dublin Rail upgrade costing £100m and supported by ERDF funds is expected to be completed by early 1998 providing the fastest transport link between Belfast and Dublin with a stop planned at new Newry Railway Station. Journey time expected to be reduced to 1 hour 40 minutes. The recent Newry Road by-pass costing £14m has been opened and the options arising from a joint study for the future upgrading of the Newry/Dundalk route are currently being considered.

Co-Operation North exists to promote greater understanding and awareness of the different cultures and traditions of people living in North and South Ireland. With grant assistance from the Special Support Programme for Peace and Reconciliation in Northern Ireland and the Border Counties of Ireland (199-1999), Co-Operation North are encouraging Cross Border Economic Development through a Business Linkages Programme offering grants for business organisations on each side of the Border coming together to enhance value-added economic activity.

Regular meetings take place between both governments, local authorities, enterprise agencies and Chambers of Commerce North and South to focus on specific development projects.

The idea of an Economic Corridor of course is not new, and there are numerous examples of successful corridors world-wide. Research is currently being undertaken by both the National Economic and Social Council in the Republic of Ireland and the Northern Ireland Economic Council in the North of the experiences of other Economic Corridors world-wide.

As highlighted at the Newry/Dundalk International Business Conference in June 1995 the Cross Border Economic Corridor concept is for a Corridor, not a tunnel. Or to continue the debate in cardiological terms, the aim in economic terms is angioplasty, not coronary bypass surgery.

The International Fund for Ireland has also been very pro-active in encouraging Cross Border economic activity.